Y+5
Tardigrade Horizon
Strategic horizon: 1 to 5+ years
Horizon: the cost of climate inaction, site by site
Horizon quantifies in euros the impact of climate hazards on each of your sites and on your portfolio, then the adaptation measures to implement and their return on investment.
62 measures
for adaptation, documented and costed in euros
8 climate perils
analyzed site by site, according to IPCC scenarios (CMIP6)
ROI
calculated for each package of measures, CAPEX and OPEX decisions included
Site summary: net annual risk and cumulative cost of inaction by 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Why an exposure score is not enough to guide investment
Knowing your sites' exposure tells you neither how much inaction costs nor where to invest. Horizon translates climate hazards into financial impact, and then into quantified adaptation decisions backed by insurance damage functions.
A standard risk assessment
An exposure level, with no amount in euros
A result per hazard, unrelated to your operating costs
No costed action options
Horizon
A financial impact in euros for each site and each hazard
Direct, indirect, and business interruption losses, based on insurance damage functions
Quantified adaptation measures, along with their ROI and residual cost
Horizon relies on the IPCC scenarios from the CMIP6 framework and on Copernicus ERA5-Land data.
How Horizon quantifies risk and adaptation
From climate risk to investment decision, in three steps.
1
Exposure of your sites
Each site is analyzed for eight climate perils, according to the IPCC scenarios (CMIP6) and a historical baseline period from 1996 to 2025.
2
Financial impact
Exposure is cross-referenced with the vulnerability of your buildings, equipment, and inventory, and then with damage and business interruption functions: direct damage, indirect damage, and business interruption losses.
3
Measures and return on investment
Eligible adaptation measure packages are compared, with their ROI based on CAPEX or OPEX decisions and the residual cost.
The climate risk equation
Exposure × damage and business-interruption function × vulnerability = financial impact
Financial indicators to guide your investment decisions
Horizon expresses climate risk using insurance and risk management indicators, for each site and across the entire portfolio.
EAL
Average annual loss
The average expected annual loss (EAL), across all events combined, for each site and each hazard.
PML
Probable maximum loss
The extreme loss amount a site could be exposed to (Probable Maximum Loss).
CVaR
Worst-case loss
The average loss beyond a probability threshold (Conditional Value at Risk), to measure the severity of the worst-case scenarios.
Distribution tail
Weight of rare events
The share of losses concentrated in rare and extreme events, which averages underestimate.
The 8 climate perils analyzed for each of your sites
Horizon covers the hazards that damage your assets and disrupt your business, from heat stress to pluvial, river, and coastal flooding.
Heat
Cold
Precipitation
Drought
Fire weather conditions
Clay shrink-swell
High winds
Flooding (surface water, river, coastal)
A digital terrain twin to forecast flooding
Horizon relies on a digital terrain twin to project pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks at 10 m, 100 m, and 200 m around the site's address. These projections feed into the financial impact calculation and the selection of adaptation measures.
10 m
around the site's address
100 m
around the site's address
200 m
around the site's address
From site to portfolio: where to invest, and what return to expect
Horizon relies on a catalog of 62 adaptation measures, documented and costed in euros according to their cost drivers (square meters, linear meters, water depth, etc.). They are grouped into packages, compared in terms of CAPEX and OPEX, along with their ROI and residual cost.
Site summary: net annual risk, cumulative cost of inaction by 2030, 2040, and 2050, breakdown by hazard.
Portfolio: map and filters to explore assessments across all your sites.
Benchmark climate data, updated annually
Horizon’s assessments are based on the IPCC scenarios from the CMIP6 framework and Copernicus ERA5-Land data. Tardigrade AI updates its projections every year, using the indicators, values, and thresholds observed in previous years.
CMIP6
IPCC scenarios for climate projections
ERA5-Land
Copernicus climate reanalysis data
1996–2025
historical baseline period for projections
0.1°
analysis grid, or about 9 km
Analysis grid of 0.1° for most perils, refined to 30 m around the GPS coordinates for clay shrink-swell and to 10, 100, and 200 m for flooding.
Frequently asked questions about Horizon
What is Horizon used for?
Horizon quantifies the impact of climate risks on each of your sites and on your portfolio in euros, then outlines the adaptation measures to implement, their return on investment, and the residual cost. You know where to invest and what return to expect.
What financial indicators does Horizon provide?
Horizon calculates, in particular, the expected annual loss (EAL), the probable maximum loss (PML), the CVaR, and the weight of the distribution tail, based on insurance damage functions.
Which climate hazards does Horizon analyze?
Eight hazards: heat, cold, precipitation, drought, fire weather, shrink-swell of clay soils, severe winds, and flooding (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal).
What data are Horizon’s projections based on?
Based on the IPCC scenarios from the CMIP6 framework and Copernicus ERA5-Land data, with a historical baseline period from 1996 to 2025. Tardigrade AI updates its projections every year with the indicators, values, and thresholds observed in previous years.
What adaptation measures does Horizon propose?
A catalog of 62 documented adaptation measures, quantified in euros based on their cost drivers (m², linear meter, water depth, etc.). Horizon groups them into packages and compares CAPEX and OPEX decisions, along with their ROI.
What is the difference between Horizon and Protect?
Horizon quantifies climate risk and the return on adaptation measures, from one to five years and beyond. Protect drives operational decision-making, from one to five days, with site-specific weather alerts.
D+5
Tardigrade Protect
Operational horizon: 1 to 5 days
And to react before the event? Protect
Site-specific weather alerts up to five days in advance, so you can act before impact. Starting at €20 per month, per site.
Forecasts from D+1 to D+5 for a site: temperatures, wind gusts, cumulative precipitation, and wave height.
Quantify the cost of inaction before you invest
Book a meeting with our experts to assess your exposure, quantify your adaptation measures, and enhance the value of your investments.