Anticiper les risques d’incendie avec le Diagnostic de Performance Climatique de Tardigrade AI

Anticipate fire risks with Tardigrade AI's Climate Performance Diagnostic

🔥 While California and Canada are once again affected by giant fires, a scientific study published a few days ago examines the evolution of the fire risk in Europe. The study, which is based on detailed geolocalized data, shows that the risk is increasing very quickly overall, including in areas that have been little affected until now. Above all, it highlights the need for each company to make a precise, clear, and scripted diagnosis, in order to anticipate and take the necessary adaptation actions based on the risk measured and its evolution in the short and medium term.

đź“ť What should we remember from the study? The study is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI), a meteorological index used worldwide to estimate the fire danger linked to climatic conditions. It was developed by the Canadian Forest Service to estimate the conditions for the ignition and spread of forest fires based on several meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed). It is therefore an index that measures the climatic conditions conducive to the start of a fire. The drier the soil, the higher the temperature, the stronger the wind, the higher the FWI index. The value of the FWI determines the intensity of the risk (low, moderate, high). In a forest environment, the FWI index makes it possible to determine which areas are at risk, and monitoring the value of the index makes it possible to preposition the means of action.

🏭 The situation is the same for a company. The first step is to measure the vulnerability of a site, production facilities, access routes, or suppliers to the risks of fires linked to climatic conditions. This is precisely what Tardigrade AI's Climate Performance Diagnostic (CPD) allows, which provides a geolocalized risk measurement for the site and its surroundings, projected year by year, according to the selected greenhouse gas reduction scenarios.

🔢 The DPC also provides all the underlying data, which allows a risk manager to easily select the short and medium term adaptation actions to prioritize, to anticipate the risk and reduce the consequences. Outside of forest areas, the FWI index is modulated by a so-called "forest-housing interface" index, which makes it possible to better anticipate the risks of propagation to the company's production resources.

🚒 In France, the study shows that the average FWI index is expected to increase by 22% to 44% by 2080, depending on the scenarios. France will go from an average FWI of 22.18 over the historical period to values ​​between 26.97 and 31.88 depending on the scenarios. As is often the case in climate risk management, variability around the average is the real source of risk. And projections in terms of heat waves, an increase in the number of very hot days, the concentration of rainfall over fewer months in winter, and the rarefaction of days of precipitation in summer are all factors that contribute to an increasing number of days for which the FWI index will largely exceed the critical threshold that triggers the very high risk of fire.

🤒 Previously little-affected regions, such as mountainous areas (Vosges, Massif Central), will see their risk increase sharply (up to +60% for the FWI). The fire danger will spread to the north and center of France. Overall, France will face an increased and more geographically widespread fire risk, requiring an adaptation of fire prevention and control strategies that require very detailed local knowledge of the issues and the means of adaptation to be put in place.

References:

Article Environmental Research Letters : https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b09#:~:text=For%20Europe%2C%20existing%20projections%20indicate,weather%20(Jones%20et%20al%202022%2C

Climate data : https://donneesclimatiques.ca/ressource/comprendre-les-bases-de-la-meteo-des-feux-de-foret-et-des-changements-climatiques/

Climate Adapt : https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/indicators/fire-weather-index

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